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Nepal Earthquake Prediction: USGS expects strong aftershocks possible in next 30 days

The United States Geological Survey (USGS), which monitors earthquakes across the world, estimated it is most likely that 0 to 5 earthquakes from magnitude 5 to 6 will occur and that the chance of at least one such aftershock is about 62%. USGS expects the event to occur within the month of May 27 to June 26, 2015.

The aftershocks are a normal occurrence after large earthquakes, and are expected to continue in Nepal but occur less often with time, USGS has written.

usgs nepal earthquake forecast

I am from Nepal, Anything to worry?


Not really. There is no way to predict the exact date or time of an earthquake or aftershock. USGS produces a statistical analysis of expected aftershocks based on past earthquakes and the aftershocks recorded in Nepal.

You need to be clear that it is different from the rumors what you have been hearing from the very days of April 25 earthquake. Recently, a huge earthquake with magnitude 9.8 was predicted to hit California on May 28, 2015 at 4 pm local time. It was just a hoax! Apart from that, USGS predicts aftershocks based on the nature of earlier earthquakes and aftershocks. You need to be alert but not panicked.

Although aftershocks may occur less often, people should remain aware of the possibility of aftershocks in the coming weeks and months, especially when working in or around vulnerable structures or in landslide-prone areas.

Earlier, USGS had predicted 40% chance of at least one magnitude 5 to 6 aftershock within the week of May 20 to May 26. Nepal Seismological Center had recorded at least two aftershocks of magnitude 5.0 during the week. An aftershock of magnitude 5.0 hit Gorkha at 03:23 am on May 25. One day later, magnitude 5.0 aftershock was recorded in Rasuwa at 10:52 pm.

However, no further damages or injuries were reported after the quakes.

Earthquake damage not only depends on magnitude but also depends on other variables, such as the the distance from the earthquake, what type of soil you are on, etc. That being said, damage does not usually occur until the earthquake magnitude reaches somewhere above 4 or 5, USGS has mentioned.

Yesterday, at least three aftershocks rattled Nepal. A total of 293 aftershocks of magnitude 4 or greater have been recorded since the 7.8-magnitude earthquake hit Nepal.

Read full Aftershock Advisory at:  http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventproducts/us20002926/aftershock-advisory.pdf

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