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Mauritius storm "Giovanna" now enters Madagascar

Disaster Report: Cyclone Giovanna Is Predicted To Grow To A CAT III, With Winds Between 178 To 210km/h. Landfall In Madagascar on February 13. Residents Of Madagascar Need To Prepare For Heavy Rainfall And Flooding

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The tracking map above clearly shows the position of Tropical Cyclone "Giovanna" . It is currently moving towards land (Antananarivo) with significant wave height 26 feet. It will make landfall (flooding + heavy rainfall) on February 13. In two days (Feb. 13 + Feb. 14) the impact can be great as forecasters says. So people in Madagascar should prepare for it. It will enter Madagascar late night (Feb. 13) and impacts will be seen on February 14 where it will last for whole day and will leave Madagascar late 14th February
After February 14, the cyclone impact will be less, just as a "Tropical storm" which will then passes to Mozambique. Mozambique is already hit by
Tropical cyclones "Dando" and "Funso" which caused heavy rainfall and flooding taking lives of 40

Get Latest updates from Disaster Report about this Cyclone@ facebook (Disaster Report), twitter (Disaster_Update) and Google +(Disaster report)




UPDATE 2/13
-Giovanna though being Class 3 cyclone, didn't cause any major damage as forecasters earlier predicted BUT currently Giovanna is heading towards Toamasina, Madagascar where it is predicted to cause worst effect.
-This much updates from Mauritius on this page, now tracking Giovanna as it reach Madagascar in another page. Many Many thanks to local from Madagascar who help in preparing this "Real Update Report" as it was in Mauritius. Hope same help will be from Madagascar side too. BYE BYE MAURITIUS :)
Click to track real update of Giovanna in Madagascar


UPDATE

-Maurice is now no longer hurricane alert
-Around 1:30 p.m, the Mauritian weather service issued its 12th and last cyclone bulletin announcing the lifting of all cyclone warnings concerning Mauritius.
Mauritius battered for 20 hours under a cyclone warning class 3 with NO MAJOR DAMAGE
-It was beneficial in terms of rainfall.The region of Mare aux Vacoas was the wettest with 68.4 mm of rain
-All the schools will be opened from tomorrow

-However, the weather remains unstable. Strong gusts are expected in later this afternoon, nearly 100 km/h


UPDATE
09:08 UTC
-It is currently raining in various part of Mauritius (intensity small). NO NEED TO WORRY atleast for some hours
-Following local from Mauritius, "
Some rain and wind, but nothing serious. Think the cyclone is passing as we speak" (look comment section)

UPDATE
05:27 UTC
- Following a local resident near the center of the island, "It is very calm, almost like no cyclone in Mauritius"
-Not even a tree fell down. Electricity, phone, water supply and internet connection all intact
-Updates St Antoine, North of Mauritius: Gusts of wind, overcast skies but no rain. Power cut earlier but back again. Fairly windy throughout the night but NO RAIN

-
The cyclone is now moving at 08 km/hr in a west South westerly direction. On this trajectory, the center of Giovanna is expected to pass at about 250 km to the north of mauritius by Midday

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UPDATE February 12
 

-As kaboom reports "Disaster Report" through Contact form, "It is 4.50 am (0.50 GMT). Here in Pereybere, in the north of Mauritius, almost no rain/ strong winds. Seems a bit weird, when the cyclone is not that far and is moving at a very slow pace"

UPDATE
22:30 UTC
-No further damage report obtained. One fatalities reported so far. After leaving Mauritius, crossing Indian ocean, Giovanna will enter Madagascar. The strength is forecasted to weaken after passing from Mozambique channel to Mozambique. Since, it is just computer tracking route/forecast who knows impact may be seen in Mozambique too. It will be more clear after it leaves Mauritius (comparing data and evaluating forecast/analysis)

UPDATE

 -Getting floods of Real time updates from Mauritius through Contact form. Thanks to everyone for that. As this cyclone is forecasted to hit Madagascar seriously late February 13, another page is created to gives lives updates/real time after it enters Madagascar. If you are one from Madagascar, kindly update in that very page. Click for the page "Giovanna in Madagascar"
-
As George express his view through Contact form from Port Louis, Mauritius, "This particular cyclone reminds me of Hollanda in 1994, same trajectory and became still during the evening while intensifying,changed route and passed over Mauritius creating havoc and disaster all over the island.
Our country reservoir has water for 28 days only,water problem is serious.We have no other option than to welcome the cyclone as we need water desperately. Water is only situated near the center, no heavy rain till now over the island.


UPDATE 19:11 UTC

Ritesh hassamal, who is continuously reporting "Disaster Report" from Mauritius just send mail mentioning, "Giovanna has remained stationary at 325km to the North North East over the last few hours, indicating a possible change in direction.
We remain under a class 3 warning.If it changes to a more southern direction we will pass on to the highest warning class 4.
Gusts of above 70 km per hour have been recorded at trou aux cerfs on the central plateau of the island.
Quatre Bornes still rainy and wind gusts are more and more frequent.
Sadly, Giovanna has made one victim already. 25yrs old motorcyclist met with an accident due to severe weather conditions and passed away.

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UPDATE
 

-One fatality reported so far

UPDATE 19:05 UTC

-It seems that currently Cyclone "Giovanna" has slowed down! Still NO RAINFALL in Riviere Du Rempart, Moka and Point Flacq region BUT wind continues. As it still falls under warning class 3, one should be aware, the situation can change at any time
-In most region, weather is Calm
with a few little gusts of wind. The situation is same in Black River On West as Danielle reports


UPDATE
 

Weather conditions currently on Mauritius
Wind: South East, calm gusting to 30km/h

Temp: 28 Degrees Celsius
Rain: 25mm


UPDATE 18:26 UTC

-As Murray Blore reported "Disaster Report" through Contact form from Calodyne, Mauritius few minutes ago, "Quite breezy, but not even storm strength right now. Its quite wierd that there's only been a little bit of rain today, just constant wind. From what I hear, between midnight and 4AM (4AM - 8AM UTC)tonight is going to be the worst for Mauritius, but I don't think its going to be a disaster zone. At my house all the outside furniture has moved indoors, hatches are battened down, and I hope the electricity doesn't go off, because it is seriously hot right now"
-As ash reported "Disaster Report" through Contact form some three hours ago from Rose Belle, Mauritius, "According to the latest bulletin, Giovanna has slow down to 10km/h..it has kept the same intensity and is expected to be at its nearest point tomorrow midday at 330 km in the north of Mauritius..Althought we are in alert 3, in Quatre Bornes the weather stays calm with no cyclonic conditions..and the conditions have remained unchanged for the last 3 hours..

UPDATE 14:57 UTC

-Mauritius airport officially closed as of 7 pm this evening
-As
Ritesh reports "Disaster Report" through Contact form from Quatre Bornes, Mauritius Island, "we have now passed to CYCLONE WARNING CLASS 3 on the island.
the weather is rainy, but not much wind at the moment. All offices, businesses have been closed down, and everyone must be at home when we are on class 3.
Roads are almost desert! (most insurance will not cover damage to cars in CLASS 3). we are all prepared for the violent weather to come

-Condition at Moka and q-bornes: Heavy rainfall

UPDATE 14:52 UTC

-Slight downpour in Northern Mauritius
-Low gust wind (see comment section below)


UPDATE  14:08 UTC
-
Most incoming flights cancelled in Mauritius
-A few departures cancelled as well, with some still open.
-The weather is cloudy, rainy with wind, but nothing mad yet (look comment section below)


UPDATE 13:50 UTC
-As
Estrella reports "Disaster Report" through Contact form Point Flacq Mauritius, "Currently sky is with grey clouds, it rains a bit from time to time, a little windy, ocean is 10 m closer than usually"

UPDATE 13:31 UTC

- Mauritius Airport still open, some flights delayed BUT no flight cancelled so far

-NW of Mauritius cloudy. Rainfall will pour in some hour
-As
rioux sabine reports from Mauritius, "I am living in the north of mauritius, in grand gaube. 17h30 mauritian time it is very windy, rain is falling in showers, gusts are breaking branches of trees. cyclonic weather conditions. compared to cyclone dina it is not a big thing but should not be underestimated as the cyclone is not here until now. we have warning class II but i guess later on it will become class III as weather is worsening and gusts increasing"

UPDATE 10:49
 

Getting lot of mails and comments. One of the visitor has just mentioned the current scenario of Mauritius from Mauritius Airport as ,"Weather is rainy and a bit windy, but not storm strength.The cyclone has not yet passed Mauritius and Reunion.It is on a course to pass by the island of Mauritius appr. 275-300 kilometers north of the island.
Flights are delayed but not cancelled"
we request anyone who can help us in preparing detail in-depth report. Kindly if anyone can send updates through Contact form. Real updates are far better. Better if you can keep your detail too. It will be easy to publish your name and location. Thanks for all those comments -Admin


UPDATE 9:05 UTC

-Another question is where is the cyclone  "Giovanna" situated right now? At the time of updating, it is currently active in Indian Ocean. By late today, it will enter Mauritius (category 4). The strong tropical cyclone will be at 200 km of Mauritius if it continues in this trajectory.
From 12 to late 13th February it will again enter Indian Ocean and by late 13th, it will enter Madagascar.
It's effect can be seen in Marovoay, Madirovalo, Toamasina, Ambatondrazaka, Saka, Antananarivo, Antanifosty, Antsirabe, Fianarantsoa, Manakara, Farafagana, Benzaha, Toliara region. It will cause effect on almost all region but mainly in Central Part. 

-One of our visitor has posted in Comment section as "I am curently on the south east coast of the island, very near Blue bay, Off and on light rain, wind picking up, humid and hot. Sky seems brighter. On the safe side we are prepared for power cuts. will keep you posted. Not too sure what to expect. Generator ready to go if needed. My husband is in Mada now, sunny skies no wind, he is in Tamatave, also will keep you posted... though i told him to get out of there ASAP, this is not so easy :)))"

UPDATE February 11

Giovanna is expected to bring 1-minute maximum sustained winds to the region of around 185 km/h (114 mph).
According to the Saffir-Simpson damage scale the potential property damage and flooding from a storm of Giovanna's strength (category 3)at landfall includes:

  • Storm surge generally 2.7-3.7 metres (9-12 feet) above normal. 
  • Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings with a minor amount of curtain wall failures.
  • Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off trees and large trees blown down.
  • Mobile homes and poorly constructed signs are destroyed.
  • Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the storm.
  • Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by battering from floating debris.
  • Terrain continuously lower than 1.5 meters (5 feet) above mean sea level may be flooded inland 13 km (8 miles) or more.
  • Evacuation of low-lying residences within several blocks of the shoreline may be required.
Note that above effect/impacts are provided for guidance only and should not be used to make life or death decisions or decisions relating to property.

UPDATE

The storm will reach 135 knots, equivalent to category V on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane windscale, before making landfall on Madagascar on 13 February at approximately 90 knots. After traversing the island, the storm is expected to redevelop in the Mozambique Channel (get latest updates
at Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) website)
JTWC forecasts (February 10, 0900 UTC), ""Due to the favorable environment, Giovanna is forecast to strengthen to a peak of 110 knots (~127 mph/~204 kph) within the next 36 hours." The system is expected to weaken significantly as it tracks across Madagascar; however, re-development is expected in the Mozambique Channel after 120 hours."

February 10; NASA UPDATE
”Cyclone_Giovanna_12S_satellite_image”
Tropical Storm 12S built up steam and became a cyclone on February 10, 2012 as NASA's Terra satellite passed overhead. Residents of east-central Madagascar should prepare for this cyclone to make landfall by February 13 according to forecasters.



February 09; NASA UPDATE
The twelfth tropical depression formed in the Southern Indian Ocean today and quickly became a tropical storm, dubbed Tropical Storm 12S. NASA's Aqua satellite passed over the storm and captured infrared data that revealed a quickly developing tropical cyclone with powerful thunderstorms around its center of circulation.

”Tropical_storm_Giovanna_12S_NASA_satellite_image”

Tropical cyclone Giovanna/12S active in Madagascar
-Cyclone Giovanna is predicted to grow to a CAT III, with winds between 178 to 210km/h. Landfall in Madagascar on february 13
-Residents of Madagascar need to prepare for the storm's arrival and expect heavy, flooding rainfall, very rough surf conditions and Cyclone-force winds

Overview
Tropical Storm
12S built up steam and became a cyclone on February 10, 2012 as NASA's Terra satellite passed overhead. Now named Cyclone Giovanna, this storm has reached Category One status on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane/Cyclone scale with maximum sustained winds near 65 knots (~75 mph/120.4 kph) on February 10, 2012.
It was located about 480 nautical miles (552 miles/889 km) northeast of La Reunion island, near 15.8 South and 61.2 East. It was moving to the west-southwest near 8 knots (9mph/15 kph).


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Comments

  1. will it have any impact on US??

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Gawd u r so dumb! Do u have ANY Geographical knowledge!

      Delete
    2. what is this?...are we in 2012 or 1912 ...seriously guys are they kidding us!!!
      are our institutions aware of things like synergy, coordination, procedures, contingency plan, etc...
      at 16hrs its class 3, alright, and all flight are leaving earlier by 3-4 hrs???
      who's responsibility is it? Airports of Mtius or Civil Aviation? how do you expect the passengers to come to the Airport? (Class 3 no insurance cover) we all know that accidents happen so do i have to walk to the Airport? taxis have quadruple their prices, but its their business, what if there is an accident? will the passengers in the taxi be covered? i don't think so. when will we have at least some coordination among these institutions. Meteo informing AML/DCA about an imminent class 3, Flight are re-scheduled, passengers come when there is normal means of transport, no risk. when all flights have left safely, if danger still exist put class 3. well, MAURICE C UN TOUJOUR PLAISIR sauf quand il faut prendre l'avion pendant un cyclone et que les policier vous disent que vous n'etes plus assuré dans la voiture. Beiiin, comment j'y vais alors?
      but after all, everybody will agree that if it was not the week-end we would not have warning three at all, as usual.
      the good thing is that at least we have some rain, and the two days without traffic will reduce some pollution, nature rules and takes back its power.
      so are we in 2012 or 1912

      Delete
  2. Will it have impact over other regions after it passes Madagascar?

    ReplyDelete
  3. and about mauritius?... my fiance is there!! oh god!!...any updates friends??

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. weather is ok...sun and rain. Not expecting terrible storms here. Rest assured as much it maintains present trajectory...

      Delete
    2. yes...it has already passed Mauritius..now heading towards Madagascar..which will enter to Madagascar ....then passing through Mozambique channel will enter to Mozambique..So high ALERT FOR MoZAMBIQUE on February 14..valentine day...@ anonymous...safe..

      Delete
    3. No has not yet passed Mauritius. I live the northern part and are getting high winds but nothing serious. By 4pm it supposed to strengthen but up to now o.k.

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    4. Hello just got word that it has increase to warning three, we are locking things down in blue bay area, as we live directly on the beach. A friend from Paris has had her flight moved up by 4 hours she has one hour to get to the airport. she is now in a car to the airport stopped by the police to say driving is "at own risk". Wind picking up still no real rain, ( the kite surfers on the beach love it) but hot and humid. will check back in...
      Mahebourgh? Blue Bay/ Pointe D'esny Area, south east coast of Mauritius, very near the airport.

      Delete
  4. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

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  5. It will passed near Mauritius tomorrow at 04:00. It is not a Danger for Mauritius with this trajectory.

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  6. Where is the cyclone situated right now?

    ReplyDelete
  7. in the Indian Ocean...

    ReplyDelete
  8. Hi
    I am curently on the south east coast of the island, very near Blue bay, Off and on light rain, wind picking up, humid and hot. Sky seems brighter. On the safe side we are prepared for power cuts. will keep you posted. Not too sure what to expect. Generator ready to go if needed. My husband is in Mada now, sunny skies no wind, he is in Tamatave, also will keep you posted... though i told him to get out of there ASAP, this is not so easy :)))

    ReplyDelete
  9. At the Mauritius airport right now.
    Weather is rainy and a bit windy, but not storm strength.
    The cyclone has not yet passed Mauritius and Reunion.
    It is on a course to pass by the island of Mauritius appr. 275-300 kilometers north of the island.
    Flights are delayed but not cancelled.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Hi
    I live in the centre of the island, so far its seems like a normal cloudy day with sparse rain..wish it could be more as we are in desperate need of water..so far all is quiet even though we are in class 2 alert..

    ReplyDelete
  11. hello admin..i have just send email to you through contact form..I am from Mauritius and want to work as a reporter...I want to give live updates from my country regarding this cyclone...can it be??..hope you will reply....I will update when it will enter Mauritius...

    ReplyDelete
  12. Hello everyone...
    Yes, I got your mail. Better you add your location (area) too...Happy to hear that you want to work with "Disaster Report" and give live updates from Mauritius..warmly welcome any one who wants to give live updates...AND please don't forget to add your name and address if you want to publish your name and location in this post...
    Thankyou
    Admin

    ReplyDelete
  13. class 3 moris !!! yuhu !!

    ReplyDelete
  14. NW of Mauritius cloudy and occasional rain, winds up to about 30 mph but nothing bad so far, lots of preparations in case still.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Hello world. Fresh news from Mauritius. No need to worry every thing will be find.
    Let's hope it brings tons of water and get our reservoirs filled up.In any case the eye won't hit Mauritius. Observe the trajectory and consider the force of gravity.

    Don't worry be happy.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Yes class 3..but a strange one..not a leaf is moving..The airport is still open and it still seemed like a normal day..Weird for a cyclone which is evolving so near the island..Dear admin, is there any chance that the cyclone might come a little bit nearer so that we can get some rain at last..

    ReplyDelete
  17. I am supposed to be flying back to London Sunday night at 9pm should I be worried about delays/cancellations? Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  18. At the airport ... Still.
    Most incoming flights were cancelled.
    A few departures cancelled as well, with some still open.
    The weather is cloudy, rainy with wind, but nothing mad yet :)
    I guess the next few hours will determine travel plans for those at the airport.

    ReplyDelete
  19. I stay in the north of mauritius (Mu). At 6 pm in mu , it is class 3, but nothing to worry right now, koz it is raining slightly and low gust wind.But the weather seems quite heavy...... it seems it may strike at any time........

    ReplyDelete
  20. I live in the region of Moka, Mauritius. Its Class III, Giovanna has started affecting our region a bit.There's heavy rainfalls now (mauritian times 6.45 PM)and surely we'll get heavy rainfalls during the night.

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  21. Mauritius airport is officially closed as of 7pm this evening....currently 6:45pm... Some rain and slight winds in Port Louis... Lots of boats brought to inner harbour.

    ReplyDelete
  22. I live in q-bornes.There's of course heavy rainfall here and as a mauritian I hope that thiz tropical cyclone will fill up our reservoirs.

    ReplyDelete
  23. Cyclone is expected to pass very near to Mtius if not directly!

    ReplyDelete
  24. hello there,
    Latest info indicates that the cyclone has nw slow down to 10km/hr which will slightly delays its approach towards Mauritius,the cyclone according to meterological services will now be at it nearest point tomorrow midday instead of early morning..in Quatre Bornes the weather stays unchanged with a few occasional showers..for us here we don't feel the cyclonic conditions at all an can even see clear skies..

    ReplyDelete
  25. reports from a airport friend say the worst will happen from 4-7 am.
    we will see still on lock down here in blue bay, wind gusts picking up but nothing major.. tbi

    ReplyDelete
  26. Remember Carol. We were kids; we were playing outside and within minutes the cyclone had flattened the island.Those who are not used to walking will feel the hand of nature striking ......

    ReplyDelete
  27. i live in curepipe. we have started to experience gusts- though not too strong. but its likely to strengthen during the night.lots of rain.....at last !

    ReplyDelete
  28. its slowing down and a little change in direction hope to be away from mauritius

    ReplyDelete
  29. heyy ppl im frm da north of mauritius (Riviere Du Rempart) and there is no rain at all and there r just some winds!!!(Mauritian time-10.22)

    ReplyDelete
  30. elo friends.im in the heart of Mauritius that is moka.hummm is this what is called warning class 3!!!!everywhere is dry here..hihihi..

    ReplyDelete
  31. Same in Point Flacq

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  32. what about port Louis??

    ReplyDelete
  33. BEWARE AM ON THE WAY...DON'T JUDGE ME ON MY WINDSPEED OR AMOUNT OF RAINFALL...DO EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN THAT. MAINTAIN ALL YOUR PRECAUTIONS, KEEP YOUR CANDLES READY...HOPEFULLY WE'LL CELEBRATE VALENTINE'S DAY TOGETHER...HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

    ReplyDelete
  34. what is this?...are we in 2012 or 1912 ...seriously guys are they kidding us!!!
    are our institutions aware of things like synergy, coordination, procedures, contingency plan, etc...
    at 16hrs its class 3, alright, and all flight are leaving earlier by 3-4 hrs???
    who's responsibility is it? Airports of Mtius or Civil Aviation? how do you expect the passengers to come to the Airport? (Class 3 no insurance cover) we all know that accidents happen so do i have to walk to the Airport? taxis have quadruple their prices, but its their business, what if there is an accident? will the passengers in the taxi be covered? i don't think so. when will we have at least some coordination among these institutions. Meteo informing AML/DCA about an imminent class 3, Flight are re-scheduled, passengers come when there is normal means of transport, no risk. when all flights have left safely, if danger still exist put class 3. well, MAURICE C UN TOUJOUR PLAISIR sauf quand il faut prendre l'avion pendant un cyclone et que les policier vous disent que vous n'etes plus assuré dans la voiture. Beiiin, comment j'y vais alors?
    but after all, everybody will agree that if it was not the week-end we would not have warning three at all, as usual.
    the good thing is that at least we have some rain, and the two days without traffic will reduce some pollution, nature rules and takes back its power.
    so are we in 2012 or 1912

    ReplyDelete
  35. No changes in Point Flacq, just a little windy. That's what local meteo update says: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE GIOVANNA HAS WEAKENED INTO A CYCLONE. AT
    07H00, IT WAS LOCATED WITHIN 280 KM ALMOST TO THE NORTH NORTH EAST
    OF MAURITIUS NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 DEGREES SOUTH AND LONGITUDE 58.0
    DEGREES EAST. IT IS NOW MOVING AT 08 KM/H IN A WEST SOUTH WESTERLY
    DIRECTION. ON THIS TRAJECTORY, THE CENTRE OF GIOVANNA IS EXPECTED
    TO PASS AT ABOUT 250 KM TO THE NORTH OF MAURITIUS BY MIDDAY.

    ReplyDelete
  36. St Antoine, North of Mauritius. Gusts of wind, overcast skies but no rain, electricity was off but back on again.Fairly windy throughout the night but no rain.

    ReplyDelete
  37. My fiancee is in Mauritius, can anybody say how is the situation now? He is in Vacoas.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Everything is ok up to now.

      Delete
    2. Cyclone Cancelled

      Delete
    3. happy..atleast our reservoir got enough water...

      Delete
  38. Some rain and wind, but nothing serious. Think the cyclone is passing as we speak

    ReplyDelete
  39. Phew! For Mauritius! Praying for Madagascar :(

    ReplyDelete
  40. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (GIOVANNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
    NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10
    KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
    IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 12S IS STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN A CLOUD-FREE
    EYE. A 121108Z AMSU-B IMAGE INDICATES AN APPROXIMATELY 35 NM WIDE
    EYE. COMPARISON OF THIS AMSU-B IMAGE TO AMSU-B IMAGES IN THE PAST 6-
    12 HOURS REVEALS A WEAKENING IN THE DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION
    SURROUNDING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT
    POSITION IS BASED ON AGREEABLE PGTW, KNES, FMEE, AND FIMP CENTER
    FIXES ALONG WITH THE AMSU-B IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
    INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 90-102 KNOTS FROM THESE
    REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A SELF-
    INDUCED MESO-ANTICYCLONE OVER THE LLCC WHICH IS PRODUCING EXCELLENT
    DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED WATER
    VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO CONTINUES TO SHOW EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC
    GIOVANNA'S TRACK SPEED HAD ACCELERATED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AS A
    DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE
    SYSTEM WILL TRACK WESTWARDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS STR
    DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. DURING THIS TIME TC 12S SHOULD SLIGHTLY
    INTENSIFY AS IT MAKES LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL MADAGASCAR JUST AFTER
    TAU 36. DURING TAU 48 THE LLCC WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO THE
    FRICTIONAL FORCES OF TOPOGRAPHIC INTERACTION. BY TAU 72 THE SYSTEM
    SHOULD EMERGE OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AND
    TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. BY TAU
    96, THE LLCC MAY HEAD TOWARDS A SLIGHT COL REGION IN BETWEEN THE STR
    TO THE EAST AND A BUILDING RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA. BY TAU 120
    THE NEW STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA MAY
    DEFLECT TC 12S ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS TRACK INTO SOUTHERN
    MOZAMBIQUE WHERE THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVERLAND. DURING
    ITS TRANSIT OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL THE SYSTEM SHOULD ONLY
    SLIGHTLY RE-INTENSIFY DUE TO THE UNFAVORABLE INFLUENCES OF VWS AND
    LIMITED TIME OVER WATER. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
    AGREEMENT UNTIL THE LLCC TRACKS OVER MADAGASCAR AND EMERGES OVER THE
    CHANNEL AND IS SPLIT INTO TWO MAIN GROUPINGS. THE ECMWF, NOGAPS, AND
    GFS LIE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS AND THE GFDN AND EGRR LIE TO THE LEFT.
    THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE FIRST GROUPING TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS
    BASED ON MORE MEMBERS AND PAST MODEL PERFORMANCE. MAXIMUM
    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
    130300Z AND 131500Z.//
    NNNN

    ReplyDelete
  41. Another build up called 13 now ierased in same direction can someone how bad can this one get?

    ReplyDelete
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