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California Earthquake Prediction: USGS says 8.0 earthquake more likely in next 30 years

California earthquake prediction has shown more likelihood of magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake in next 30 years. The chance of a magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake hitting California in the next three decades have been raised from about 4.7% to 7%, a new California earthquake forecast report by the U.S. Geological Survey has shown.

“The new likelihoods are due to the inclusion of possible multi-fault ruptures, where earthquakes are no longer confined to separate, individual faults, but can occasionally rupture multiple faults simultaneously,” lead author and USGS scientist Ned Field said.

The report also claims that the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, or UCERF3, improves upon previous models by incorporating the latest data on the state’s complex system of active geological faults, as well as new methods for translating these data into earthquake likelihoods. 

"This big California earthquake prediction has shown the probability of a strong magnitude-8 quake greater since the last assessment seven years ago"

california_earthquake_prediction_usgs_map
Three-dimensional perspective view of the likelihood that each region of California will experience
a magnitude 6.7 or larger earthquake in the next 30 years (6.7 matches the magnitude of the
1994 Northridge earthquake, and 30 years is the typical duration of a homeowner mortgage) - via USGS
"The southern San Andreas, going through the Coachella Valley and up through the Mojave, is the most likely place in the state to host a large earthquake," USA Today has written quoting the Ned Field.

The USGS partner organizations that contributed to this product include the Southern California Earthquake Center, the California Geological Survey and the California Earthquake Authority.

“The UCERF3 model provides our leaders and the public with improved information about what to expect, so that we can better,” said Tom Jordan, Director of the Southern California Earthquake Center and a co-author of the study.

Recommended Post: Why 9.8 magnitude earthquake won't hit California on May 28, 2015?

Southern California Earthquake Prediction Report available at:

U.S. Geological Survey. "New long-term earthquake forecast for California." Retrieved from: http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=4146

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Tibet/Nepal earthquake 2013 injures people

At least two tremors have been felt in Kathmandu, Nepal in interval of about 10 minutes.Updates below
Felt reports below in comment section. Feel free to add yours!
Update time Nepali (+5:45 UTC)
Report prepared by Ashish Khanal from Kathmandu, Nepal


Related post: List of earthquakes in Nepal in 2013

Update 09:18 A.M.
At least one people died and three others injured in China, the official Xinhua News Agency said.

Further 17 others from three tourist buses were trapped by quake-triggered landslides in Yunnan Province of China.

Update 07:25 A.M.

According to the China Earthquake Networks Center, another earthquake in the morning (not to be confused with midnight Tibet/Nepal earthquake) had magnitude of 5.9 in the border of southwest China's Yunnan and Sichuan provinces.
The quake was felt strongly in the county seat of Deqen, Xinhua reported.
Earthquake also triggered landslides, which blocked the traffic from Deqen to Benzilan in China.

Update 06:15 A.M.
According to the Nepal Seismolog…

Mauritius storm "Giovanna" now enters Madagascar

Disaster Report:Cyclone Giovanna Is Predicted To Grow To A CAT III, With Winds Between 178 To 210km/h. Landfall In Madagascar on February 13. Residents Of Madagascar Need To Prepare For Heavy Rainfall And Flooding
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